10 Leading Trends for Real Estate in 2009
10 Leading Trends for Real Estate in 2009
Posted by Pat Kitano at 1/1/2009 12:46 AM
1) 2009 is the Year of the Mortgage.
Historically low interest rates artificially pushed down to stabilize the economy will be a once-in-a-lifetime window of opportunity. With economists predicting the 10-year bond rates (which generally correlate with mortgage rates) starting to rise in 2009, expect a wave of refinancing and a return of home buyers/investors wanting to lock down that low rate.
When? Once the market is comfortable that a bottom has finally been reached; and that is hard to predict. (According to bond market strategist Tony Crescenzi, new home inventories are plunging).
2) 2009 is the Year of the Economy
In the first half of 2009, the new Obama administration will focus solely on righting the economy with stimulus packages and an artificially low interest rate environment. This recession is global, and it seems that the Central Banks around the world will work in concord with similar stimulus policies. The global economic coordination is unprecedented in history and we'll see by summer whether this all works.
3) Consumers Will Demand Online Presence
Consumers demand online presence for retailers, travel, cars... everything. Those who aren't providing that presence (note Sears.com below) are being dragged down by their recession-induced low margin / high leverage bricks and mortar business model. The analogy to real estate brokerages is clear.
Consumers understand real estate agents need to leverage the Internet to market their properties. They will trust agents who can demonstrate this by how they market themselves online... that includes easy access to Web 2.0 conversation via a variety of social media. How can any agent today believe they can ignore the Internet ?
4) Consumers Won't Buy Based on Week-Old News
Just as the internet has made the morning newspaper a digest of old news, Twitter and other micro-blogging applications are changing news digestion through minute-by-minute citizen broadcasting of breaking news and events. For the user, this amplification of news content is not data overload because the news is filtered via RSS feeds, special search criteria, or simply site visits. The example of following news on personal stock portfolios on Marketwatch.com is easily extended to following Twitter/Feedfuze feeds (like Homescopes, see #8 below) on local housing markets. Who is willing to purchase GM stock without checking the news? Who will buy a home during this period of economic instability based on month old NAR reports?
Frankly, it's the real estate agents' job to monitor their housing market on a daily basis and that's a major value proposition. The next five trends focus on how real estate agents can actively demonstrate their grasp of the market to their client base.
5) The Focus of News Will be Distribution over Creation
Before the Internet and citizen journalism, mainstream media owned the content it created (news, music and movies) and charged a lot for the consumption of that content. The social media now produces a lot of the online content and is disrupting the media industries by pushing the price for content consumption towards zero. Online news sources are now positioning themselves to be the most comprehensive "news re-sources" and in 2009 will start steering their readership to authoritative sources who may or may not be their own journalists. Among citizen journalists, real estate bloggers and Twitterers will benefit from the exposure.
6) Discovery is the Killer App
Yelp on iPhone does it well. Go to any unknown city, and review site Yelp uses the iPhone GPS to find a well reviewed nearby restaurant or map the nearest gas stand within seconds. The best new applications of 2009 will create discovery opportunities. Discovery is best facilitated by: 1) referrals from the social media, and 2) breaking news of actionable content, 3) new contextual search capabilities that deliver higher relevancy results than a typical search engine.
For real estate professionals, getting a massive hyperlocal consumer population to "discover" you in a relevant way will be a key lead generation driver. See #7 and #8.
7) The Question: "What I am doing on Facebook?" is Finally Answered.
Facebook Connect, and its social network cousins Google Friend Connect, and the still obscure MySpace ID will facilitate the portability of social networks, or the "social graph". This will be one of the most powerful applications towards creating a social media business model in 2009, but is hard to explain to social media newbies. What does it mean?
Through Facebook Connect, consumers log into other sites using their Facebook login details. Once inside the site, users can discuss or post their activities in real time to their Facebook network. The effect is to bring in their network of friends into the hosting site. For real estate sites, allowing consumers to log in through their Facebook ID becomes a viral invitation for developing conversations around real estate, and an opportunity to add new Facebook friends (and potential clients) from Facebook networks.
Remember, on Facebook and other social networks, strangers who want to "friend" you may want to hire you. Don't try to be exclusive or put them off (unless they are truly repulsive).
8. continued below
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posted by Ed Bisquera @ 9:30 AM
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